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2023 ELECTION: NATIONAL SECURITY AND NIGERIA STABILITY; A NEXUS BY PROF. ABIODUN AMUDA- KANNIKE (SAN)

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INTRODUCTION

This is another interesting topic which is important for the nation, as Nigeria is on the move again for another National Election in 2023. As usual in most national elections which is not restricted to nigeria alone,1 it is always assumed and usually happened that national security and stability of the country is tested by virtue of the said election, and instead of looking at it as a non-issue, it is important to sensitize ourselves about it, take precaution about it and look forward towards a successful 2023 election which should not destroy the nation but stabilize it, secure it and being able to rejoice for a successful outcome of the election vis-a?-vis better nation and better leadership at the helm of affairs. How this lofty circumstance/environment will be realized either positively or negatively will depend on so many factors which will be discussed here.

In doing justice to this paper, it is important to appreciate the following key terms which are as follows;

i. Election
ii. National Security iii. Nigeria Stability iv. Nexus

ELECTION

The word “election” means the process of choosing representatives to fill the positions of authority of the Federal government and various state governments comprising the executive and legislative positions.

Also election has been described as the situation where a formal group decision-making process is ignited by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public office. It has also been said to mean a process where people vote to choose a person or group of people.

Furthermore, election is equally said to be a formal process of selecting a person for public office or of accepting or rejecting a political proposition by voting. However, one needs to distinguish between the form and the substance of elections.5 On one hand, electoral forms may be present but the real substance of the election may be missing, while on the other hand, the electoral forms may be present, and equally, the real substance of the election is equally present.

Election is also seen as a situation where a formal group of persons chooses an individual or group of individuals to hold public office. This also extend to the act of choosing or selecting one or more from a greater number of persons, things, courses or rights.

NATIONAL SECURITY

National security has been described in various ways among which are, the resilience of a nation against cyber threats, the ability of the government to utilize military force to protect its citizens, safety economic welfare and social institutions invaders, it can also be said to be the ability of a nation to meet the needs necessary for its self-preservation, self-reproduction and self- improvement with minimal risk of damage to the basic values of its current state, its also the ability to protect the nation physical, and territorial integrity.

It has been said that there is a general tendency in Nigeria and in perhaps most third world countries to equate military security with national security but that national security includes more than military security as national security involves, among other things; economic and financial security, health and social security, infrastructure, transportation and communication security, power and cyber security and most especially, human and political security.9 This all encompassing definition of national security is agreeable to us, except to add to it that the most important aspect of national security is the “psychological security” which can completely knock-off or bring a nation into total collapse.

NIGERIA STABILITY

The definition of Nigeria stability is multi-dimensional as it has to do with political, social and economical dimensions. With respect to political stability, the assessment has to do with governance and regime. Because of democracy, we can observe that the incessant takeover of government through unconstitutional means including coups and counter-coups have stopped. The electorates and the politicians must therefore watch out for their intolerable activities in order not to put the country Nigeria in a position of ungovernable atmosphere where anarchy, destruction of lives and properties may occur.

Our major focus here, with respect to the 2023 election is to dwell more on political stability rather than social and economic stability. Political stability will therefore involve, ensuring free and fair election, improvement in employment, protection of the basic rights of citizens.

Stability on the other hand means, the quality, state or degree of being stable such as the strength to stand or endure.

Stability further means a situation where something such as an economy, company, or system can continue in a regular and successful way without unexpected changes.

NEXUS

Nexus means a connection or series of connections linking two or more things. It can also be said to mean a central or focus point. A nexus can further be described as a connection or series of connection within a particular situation or system.

A nexus at the same time refers to a central link or connection. The word nexus is a Latin word “nectere” meaning “to bind or tie”. It is often used to describe the point where different things or ideas come together or intersect.

This presentation is looking at the likelihood of how the 2023 general election will turn out to be, by linking up the positive or negative outcome of the general election to “National Security and

outcome of the election” if there exist proper national security, this will likely give rise to Nigeria stability and if the national security is in the negative, then the outcome of it will be that, Nigeria will be in the position of instability. Therefore, security is key to 2023 general election, it is also key to Nigeria stability.

In addressing this issue, the presentation will be divided into five (5) different areas in order to appreciate this topic, having dealt with the “introduction” and “definition of terms”, we shall discuss this areas as follows;

  1. the positive aspect of the security arrangement towards the 2023 general election.
  2. the negative aspect of the security arrangement towards the 2023 general election.
  3. summary
  4. recommendations
  5. conclusion.

THE POSITIVE ASPECT OF THE SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS TOWARDS THE 2023 GENERAL ELECTION

Pre-Election Cases/Election Petition

The positive aspect of pre-election cases in giving national security towards the 2023 general election in order to achieve Nigeria stability can be seen in the people having the opportunity to seek redress in the court of law when they are aggrieved with the outcome of the primary election before the general election. If this opportunity is not there those who are aggrieved as a result of the outcome of the primary election would have been forced to take up arms, destroy lives and properties, this may affect national security, at the same time Nigeria stability. This is because, once national security collapse, there will be no 2023 general election not to talk about, Nigeria stability.

The court in APC VS LERE,20 (2020) 1 NWLR (part 1705) page 254 at 279 stated that pre-election matters occur from preparations towards the general election. They are lives issues that must be heard and judgment delivered as a result of complaint from party primaries. This definition was adopted also in the cases of; MODIBO VS USMAN21 (2020) 3 NWLR (part 1712) page 470 at 500 – 515, GBILEVE VS ADDINGI22 (2014) 16 NWLR (part 1433) at page 394, APC VS DELE MOSES & ORS (unreported) SC/CV/29/202123

The Pre-election matters have done justice to the electorates in such a way as to believe in the system thereby avoiding causing insecurity and instability because,, we have had situation where serving senators, Governors or even a Governor about to be sworn, the following day and were removed from occupying or removed from their seats especially the case of PDP VS DEGI-EREYMIENYO & ORS24 (2020) 1 – 2 SC (part 1), APC VS LERE25(SUPRA) and MODIBO VS USMAN (SUPRA).

The provision of Section 285 (14)27 of the 1999 constitution define what is pre-election matter. Pre- election matter can also emanate from other sources of Law as provided for under section 29 (5)28 of the electrical Act and also section 84 (14)29 of the electoral Act, 2022. An election petition on the other hand has been defined as a complaint by the petitioner against an undue election or return of a successful candidate at an election, as provided for in Section 133 (1) of the electoral act 2022.

2. The acts of the political parties
The Political parties on their own have started informing their members about the need to avoid thuggery and acts capable of causing insecurity and instability which is meant to avert insecurity and instability, this, may likely jeopardize the 2023 general elections.

This is a welcome development as most problem inimical to a successful election are always caused by the political parties.

  1. The Political Campaigns
    It is also a welcome development when we have started hearing the political parties stating that the campaigns32 should be “issues based campaigns” and not campaigns which are capable of triggering riots, mayhem and destruction of lives and properties.
  2. The Optimism of INEC to Succeed
    The Spirit of the Nigeria electoral body, called the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is of the highest optimism. Several circumstances had come their ways which should by now dampened their spirit that the 2023 election should be postponed but the commission and its staffs are working very hard to succeed.
    No wonder, the commission explained quite quickly that despite the insecurity, nothing will stop the 2023 polls33. The commission stated that;

    “Against the back drop of the impact of covid-19 pandemic and the current security situation in the country, both plans had to prioritize the institutionalization of the commissions processes for the effective delivery of its mandate by focusing on capacity-building, promotion of professionalism, encouraging greater synergy among departments, improving efficient utilization of resources, increased deployment of technology as well as greater sensitivity to threat to the electoral process as well as election personnel and infrastructure.”

    5. The Role of police

    The fact remains that we cannot carry out the 2023 general election without the participation of the police. In fact they are one of the key factors towards conducting a free and fair election in Nigeria as the whole essence of security revolves around the police both in terms of their constitutional and statutory duties vis-a-vis physical participation.

    The Nigeria police recently organized a workshop on election security and management. The national security adviser (NSA) Maj. Gen. Babagana Monguno, called for synergy, professionalism and patriotism among security agencies in order to have a successful 2023 general election. He stated thus.

    “A successfully policed and peaceful election circle is a fundamental variable in the quest by any nation to advance its democracy and deepen its democratic system”

    Election security is said to be a system or plan designed to guarantee safety and protection from any form of hitch or impediment which can distort or compromise the conduct of free, fair and credible election. It involves before, during and after the election entailing protection of the electoral activities, electoral processes, protection of the voters, candidates, polling officers, media election observers,36election materials, data and general infrastructures connected with the general election against, death, damages or destruction in whatever form.

    The national Assembly is doing well in its attempt to establish electoral offences courts

    6. Early identification of red spots
    Sometime they are usually called flash points, other time they are called “Red spots”. What it meant is that they are proned to insecurities. Nkasi Wodu, while writing on this issue properly dealt with it and we entirely agreed with him when he stated those red spots of election cycles (2011, 2015 and 2019) continues to hover below the 15th position. a worrying trend considering the violence experienced in those three periods.

    As the political season for the 2023 elections draws near. Nigeria is at risk of experiencing another bout of election- related violence, particularly as the security pressures have increased in intensity and expanded in scope this time. Among the regions mainly untouched by high levels of electoral violence in previous election cycles was the southeast region. However, this situation has changed. As the site of an emerging insurgency said to be led by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) – a secessionist group to separate from the Nigerian State and its militant arm, the Eastern Security Network (ESN), the region has recorded an increasing number of clashes with public security forces since 2020 including attacks on police stations, prisons, courts and the offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission Nigeria’s electoral management body. According to reports more than 100 people were killed by security personnel in the first four months of 2020 alone, while 21 policemen were killed in three months alone that same year. Added to this mix are troubling reports40 of human rights violations by the public security forces in Nigeria and an overly militarized approach employed by the government to address the problem. Even more disturbing is that IPOB was said to use its military arm – the ESN – to enforce sit-at-home orders and had threatened a large-scale boycott of the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Anambra State. a southeast state and one of the strongholds of the separatist group, although ultimately did not enforce the boycott that time and later came out with a statement to say they did not actually mean it, nor were they responsible for it.

    Nigeria’s Northern region had also been the epicenter of increasing violence from armed groups referred to as ‘bandits’ or ‘unknown gunmen’ in the Nigerian media until January 2022, when the Nigerian government declared them a terror group. Major hotspots for banditry in Nigeria are Zamfara. Katsina, Kebbi, Kaduna. Sokoto, Nasarawa and Niger. Unfortunately. these formerly unorganized criminal entities have evolved into an organized criminal network willing to enforce the destructive ideologies of extremist groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) – who have continued to threaten peaceful elections in Nigeria since 2011. Recently, these groups have been involved in kidnapping school children and other victims while extorting huge sums from their families: they have also attacked a passenger train and shot down an Air Force fighter jet. More worrying in light of the 2023 election is that these groups can be used to perpetrate election violence or stop elections in strongholds of opposition politicians.

    Nigeria’s South-South region has ceased to be a scene for criminal insurgency since the devastating activities of the Niger Delta Avengers in 2016. But unfortunately, it has continued to be home to a different kind of threat cult groups – armed groups made up of young people – which have proliferated across s six states. Typically, in the lead- up to previous elections, violence from cult groups intensifies as they battle for control over an area. This control provides them the leverage to negotiate with political parties to deliver the elections in that area – a term used to describe a situation where the use of violence is deployed to give a particular politician or his party an advantage in the polls. Thus, rivalries and supremacy battles between cult groups have become an extension of political battles as rival politicians fund opposing cult groups to gain an advantage over others. This was the case in the 2015 and 2019 elections, and the continued existence of these groups and competitive politics in Nigeria pose significant risks in the 2023 elections.

    In Lagos, Nigeria’s most populous city and former capital located in the South-West citizens were besieged by brazen attacks from cult groups, particularly the One Million Boys and Awawa groups in 2020 during the pandemic. Reports indicate that these groups operated with impunity, forcing residents to form local vigilantes because of the inability of the Nigeria police force to respond to repeated calls from residents. Cult groups continue to terrorize the South-West states as well and just as in the South-South, these groups have been tools in the hands of politicians to perpetrate election-related violence45 against expectations.

    Electoral violence in Nigeria seldom occurs in a vacuum: it is driven by a system that rewards violence, encouraged by a struggling and overstretched security architecture, a culture of impunity and a political structure that encourage misbehaviours. In this intricate system violent groups continue to rise and spread throughout Nigeria and serves as tools for urgly political contests. As Nigeria’s 2023 election draws nearer, the prospects of a violent contest loom, especially in the face of a battle for survival between the two major political parties who face different tests.

    Analysts have declared that without power, the ruling APC, formed in 2014, to wrest political power from the PDP could disintegrate while losing of a third Presidential election in 2023 could have serious effects on the PDP. Against this backdrop the stage is set for a fierce battle. As past elections have shown, existing security pressures exacerbate this battle.

    More significant from a stabilization perspective is that whoever emerges as the winner of the elections next year will be faced with severe security pressures.47 Increasingly violent armed groups, a security architecture unable to keep up with the pace of worsening insecurity, and large space governed by violent non-state actors are a few of those challenges. Nigerians need to ask questions from the major contenders for the 2023 elections and decide which of them is capable of pulling the country back from its brink without religious nor tribal sentiments.

    THE NEGATIVE ASPECT OF THE SECURITY ARRANGEMENT TOWARDS THE 2023 GENERAL ELECTION

    Preamble

    Having looked at the preparations and those issues surrounding 2023 election, insecurity and the survival of the country after the election, we have to now look at the negative aspect of the said issue in order to know what to do to avoid the negativity. Those issues discussed earlier will be discussed critically in order to assist in this discussion and they are as follows;

    1. Pre-Election Cases and Election Petition
    The courts especially our Judges who are handling the pre- election cases and those who will be handling the election petition cases should deliver sound judgments and have the fear of God. In most instances, judicial decisions can aggravate insecurity, leading to riots and destruction of lives and properties. No wonder the new Chief Justice of Nigeria, Hon. Justice Olukayode Ariwoola(GCON)48 stated that;

    “Nigeria as we all can see and feel is currently plagued with myriad of problems that require our sincere and honest interventions as judicial officers. We hear of corruptions of various forms, killings, kidnappings, armed robbery, banditry and all forms of terrorism against the state and individual citizens.

    Most often these cases find their way in the court for the right and proper adjudication.
    At the crossroads that we have found ourselves in Nigeria today, we are earnestly and passionately looking for a crop of judicial officers who will be role models that can confidently hoist the banner of honesty, integrity and uprightness”.

    1. The Acts of the Political Parties
      It is true that while the politicians on one hand were showing signs of being ready to place the security and unity of the country above their personal interest in the 2023 election, it is equally true that on the other hand, their actions, inactions and general activities are gearing towards promoting insecurity which may negatively affect the 2023 election and consequently the foundation or continue existence of this country.49 The famous “WETIE” which started in the Western Nigeria and eventually engulfed this country leading to military takeover is almost rearing its head again and we must nip it in bud.
    2. Political Campaigns
      The Political parties having pretended to state that there should be no campaigns of calumny but issues base campaigns have started the campaigns by abusing each other, talking about irrelevant issues rather than issues base campaigns. In fact the present level of campaigns have started influencing insecurity and constituting threats to the 2023 general election.51 There should be the need to focus campaigns on issues affecting governance, development and security, rather than causing more insecurity during political campaigns.52

      Furthermore, the country presently is holding its breath as the frills, the thrills, jabbing and cross-jabbing have increased already, not that it will commence. The Political atmosphere is already being enveloped with the apprehension because the major political parties are cajoling the electorates by conviction and enticement in this regard. The political parties ought to be guided by various legal position; 53

      1. the Constitution
      2. the Electoral Act
      3. the Police Act
      4. Public Order Act

      The campaigns must avoid abusive language, whether directly or indirectly which could injure religious, ethnic, tribal or sectional feelings,54 this could involve slanderous or vulgar languages vis-a?-vis innuendoes geared towards provoking violent reactions or emotions during political campaigns.

      4. The Optimism of INEC to Succeed
      We had earlier considered the optimism of INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission) to succeed but critically examined for now, we cannot say optimistically that INEC is ready for the 2023 general election more specifically in the area of security and peace.55 It has been suggested that the independent National Electoral Commission should be more independent in action than orally or in writing.56

      The Independent National Electoral Commission should be pro-active in telling the National Assembly members to their face that there exist the fundamental need to either invest in entrepreneurship57 or entrepreneurial education58 including passing the Nano bill into law59 while Nano60should be the hallmark of development in order to curb insecurity before and after the 2023 general election which will in effect assist in sustaining the indivisibility of Nigeria as a nation. This is not being considered now, meanwhile the economic hardship faced by most Nigerians constitute and will continue to constitute danger for not only the 2023 general election but the security and unity of the country. No wonder it is always said that “an hungry man is an angry man”. INEC do not need money alone for the purpose of the 2023 general election, they do not need the police and other security agencies alone but need a populace who are not too angry because they are hungry.

      We must realize that there exist greater effect of leadership and entrepreneurship on law, security and national unity61 which will ultimately rob on the 2023 general election. INEC cannot say this is not our problem but for now, INEC is not counting it as its problem.

      There are people also nursing the fair that INEC cannot be said to be truly independent in the conduct of the forth coming election. There are controversies about the issue of continuous voters register, the collection of PVCs and the INEC chairman cried out on the issue of challenges being faced by the commission which have not been resolved.

      5. The Role of Police

      The truth about it is that while the police are important for the 2023 general election, it is unfortunate that because of the way the police are treated by the government, they are pruned to compromising criminality and this is likely to affect the 2023 election despite the juicy promises by the police to be well behaved. The average police officer is lickened to be armed slave.63 Police is considered the primary symbol of corruption, administrative inefficiency and state brutality. Bribery is considered the official language of uniform, investigative procedures are often dismissed as unreliable and not unusual for armed political things to enjoy police patronage.

      If the police, from what they are saying are truly ready for the 2023 general election, we have decided to pose the following questions which we know that the answers will reveal that the police are not really ready for the 2023 general election. The questions are thus;

      1. those policemen who are going to be on the field during the election, are their lives insured?
      2. 2023 general election for estacode, special

        allowance and logistics?

        1. Are there special gadgets bought or to be

          procured for the police to use during the general election in order to prevent insecurity?

        2. Are the police salaries enough to stop them from “really” taking bribes, gratification or compromising crimes or election related crimes?
        3. Are the policemen in Nigeria (majority) not in (minority) really happy in doing their jobs? Have we really made them happy to do their jobs? 65
        4. Do we have enough policemen in Nigeria as at now? Are they well trained and provided for?
        5. Don’t we need “State policemen” in Nigeria?

        Early Identification of Red Spots

        The identification of red spots is important in order to provide proper security during election. The red spots areas are;

        I. Anambra State

        1. Enugu State
        2. Ebonyi State
        3. Imo State
        4. Abia State
        5. Borno State
        6. Zamfara State
        7. Kaduna State
        8. Niger State
        9. Kebbi State
        10. Katsina State
        11. Kogi State

        The question is; has the government really come out with the detailed early identification of the red-spots areas during election? Any preparation to tame insecurity in those areas?

        SUMMARY

        We have been able to look at the keywords and their meanings in this presentation and which keywords are; (i) Election (ii) National Security (iii) Nigeria Stability and (iv) Nexus. Thereafter, we divided this work into five (5) segments which are; (i) the positive aspect of the preparation towards the 2023 general election (ii) the negative aspect of the preparation towards the 2023 general election (iii) summary (iv) recommendations and (v) conclusion.

        RECOMMENDATIONS

        1. The Judiciary should be alive to its responsibilities as the last hope of the common man. The confidence reposed on the judiciary is very high and once this confidence is eroded, it may with respect, lead to insecurity and protests in the name of being cheated by the judiciary. The judiciary with all due respect have interfered in some cases and even changed the mandates of the citizens on ground of technical justice. No wonder, Hon. Justice Niki Tobi JSC as he then was, now of blessed memory stated;

        “Nigerian Judges must maintain a very big distance from politics and politicians. Our Constitution forbids any mingling. As Judges, we must obey the Constitution.

        The two professions do not meet and will never meet at all in our democracy in the discharge of their functions.
        While politics as a profession is fully and totally based on partiality, most of the time, judgeship as a profession is fully and totally based on impartiality, the opposite of partiality.

        Bias is the trade mark of politicians. Non-bias is the trade mark of the Judge. That again creates a scenario of superlatives in the realm of opposites. Therefore the expressions, “politician” and “Judge” are opposites, so to say, in their functional contents as above; though not in their ordinary dictionary meaning.

        Their waters never meet in the same way Rivers Niger and Benue meet at the confluence near Lokoja. If they meet, the victim will be democracy most of the time and that will be bad for sovereign Nigeria. And so Judges should, on no account, dance to the music played by politicians because that will completely destroy their role as independent umpires in the judicial process.

        Let no Judge flirt with politicians in the performance of their constitutional adjudicatory functions. When I say this, I must also say that I have nothing against politicians. They are our brothers and sisters in our homes. One can hardly find in any Nigerian community or family without them. There cannot be democracy without them and we need democracy; not despotism, oligarchy and totalitarianism. They are jolly good fellows.

        The only point I am making is that their professional tools are different from ours and the Nigerian Judge should know this before he finds himself or falls into a mirage where he cannot retrace his steps to administer justice. That type of misfortune can fall on him if the National Judicial Council gets annoyed of his conduct. Ours are not theirs. Theirs are not ours. I will not say more. I will not say less too. So be it.”

        1. The Political parties should act in decent manners. The political parties usually encourage their members to go on rampage instead of curbing their excesses. This should be stopped immediately.
        2. The Political campaigns should be “issue base campaigns”

          How much has been voted specially by the National Assembly for the Police to use for and not those ones that are abusive and security threatened.

        1. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has lots of work to do including advising the government on areas of entrepreneurship and the growth of the economy.
        2. The Nigeria Police should cry out to the government that they are not ready for the 2023 general election. As it is now, there exist no doubt that the police should be properly funded, trained, kitted and provided for, in order to shun bribery and partisanship.
        3. The government and security agencies should immediately work on the “red spots” we have highlighted herein and tell the nation how prepared they are to secure those places for election to take place and for the continuous security of those places.
        4. There is nothing bad in the federal government negotiating with Nnamdi Kanu instead of appealing the decision of the court of Appeal on his release. This will also reduce the insecurity in the South-East especially before the election and after the election.
        5. There should be real and complete synergy between the citizens, the security agencies and even government of foreign countries. For example, the recent Abuja incident…

        CONCLUSION

        From our discussion, it can be seen that there is the need for adequate security and peaceful atmosphere if there will be truly a 2023 general election and the continuous existence of this great country, Nigeria. We as citizens have roles to play including the politicians who are the major players for this election and leaders in the day to day affairs of the nation whether before, during and after the 2023 election.

        Unless you understand your role in society, you can never make any meaningful contribution.
        According to the Greeks there are three types of people on earth;

        1. the idiots,
        2. the tribesmen, and
        3. the citizens.

        Studies show only 10% of Africans are citizens. The remaining 90% are either tribesmen or idiots. When the Greeks used the word “idiot”, they did not use it as a curse word.

        The Idiots: Idiots are people who just don’t care. If they write exams, they will cheat. If they are in government they will steal. An idiot does not care at all, if he eats bananas he throws the peels anywhere instead of putting them in a trash bin.

        According to the Greeks, some societies have more idiots than tribesmen and citizens.

        The next set of people are tribesmen: These are people that look at everything from the point of view of their tribe. These are people that believe in you only if you are part of their tribe. It can be terrible to have a tribesman as a leader, he will alienate the rest. When the Greeks talk about tribes, it’s not just about ethnicity, they also consider religion as a tribe.

        A great percentage of Africans are tribesmen, because they view everything from the point of view of their tribes. They trust only their tribesmen.

        The last group is citizens: These are people that like to do things the right way. They will respect traffic light rules even if no one is watching them. They drive within speed limits. They respect the laws, won’t cheat in exams. In government they won’t steal. They are compassionate and give to others to promote their wellbeing. Citizens often promote projects that benefit everyone. The Greeks called this group the citizens.

        Some countries have more citizens than tribesmen and idiots. Others have so many idiots. A tribesman can become a citizen through orientation. And an idiot can become a citizen by training and constant enforcement of the law.

        But things fall apart if you elect an idiot or tribesman to lead you if he has not been reformed.
        Where do you belong?
        Are you an idiot, a tribesman or a citizen?

        Reflect about your life.
        Reflect about your country and Africa in general before you answer.

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